Workshop: Technological Forecasting for Science and Technology Intelligence - Predicitng the Future History of Technology
Articulating the present state of the art, assessing competitors’ technological capabilities, and forecasting the direction and rate of technological advance are critical elements of science & technology intelligence (ST&I). This full day workshop focuses on the application of technological forecasting and science and technology intelligence in strategic technology planning. In achieving this goal, it covers both quantitative and qualitative analytical techniques for assessing the technical capability of your competitors and for predicting future directions and likely developments in those technologies most crucial to your business.
This full-day tutorial is divided into a morning session which may be considered a managerial overview and a more detailed afternoon session.
So, just what is Technological Forecasting? And, can you really forecast technology? People have been doing it for years, but it takes understanding the right data and the analytics to do it well. To set the stage, we’ll begin with an introduction to technological forecasting and science and technology intelligence and their role in strategic planning for the enterprise. What makes this different from other types of forecasting is an understanding of technology life cycles and the underlying dynamics of technological advance. Much of the data comes from technology surveillance techniques which are applied to the most productive sources of technology intelligence data. Rounding out the morning session will be an introduction to several common technology forecasting methodologies – some quantitative and some qualitative – that aid in technology intelligence analysis.
In the afternoon portion, we delve deeper into the techniques for performing technological forecasting and analyzing technology intelligence data. We begin this exploration of technological forecasting methods with techniques for analyzing and extrapolating technology trends based on the well-known technology s-curve. But obviously, the diffusion of technology is more than a simple curve fitting exercise. Therefore, we will also examine how the attributes of an innovation impact its diffusion in the marketplace and how these attributes may be used to assess the likely acceptance of new product introductions — yours or your competitor’s.
During the afternoon session, we also present judgmental and expert opinion-based knowledge elicitation techniques for the development of technology intelligence. Here, participants will learn how to use the Delphi technique, nominal group technique, morphological analysis and impact wheels for eliciting and aggregating expert opinion. Throughout this portion of the tutorial, we will illustrate how the respective technology forecasting techniques may be applied in real world technology intelligence analysis in a number of different industry sectors.
- Assess the present state of the art and competitor capabilities
- Analyze trends in technological capabilities and performance
- Predict the substitution of a new technology or innovation
- Examine how the attributes of an innovation impact its diffusion in the marketplace and how these attributes may be used to assess the likely acceptance of new product introductions
- Judgmental and expert opinion-based knowledge elicitation techniques for the development of technology intelligence.
Richard Mignogna, Ph.D., P.E is a consultant, educator, and researcher. He is presently a Lecturer in the Global Energy Management Program at the University of Colorado – Denver where he teaches a course in 21st Century Global Energy Issues. He is also a Visiting Lecturer in Energy Management at Universiti Teknologi Petronas in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Outside of the university, he is Principal Consultant with Technology/Engineering Management Int’l, LLC, a Colorado based consultancy specializing in science & technology intelligence, technology forecasting and assessment, strategic technology planning, technology commercialization, and engineering management. TEMI’s consulting clients have included numerous Fortune 1000 firms, the U.S. Government, and academic institutions.
Dr. Mignogna was formerly the founding director of the Management of Technology graduate program at the University of Denver where he taught courses in Technology Forecasting and Assessment; Frontier Technologies: Impacts on Business and Culture; and Technology and the Organization (strategic technology planning). From 2005 through 2011, he served as Senior Authority on Renewable Energy for the Colorado Public Utilities Commission. A leading authority on S&T intelligence and technology forecasting, Dr. Mignogna has lectured widely on these topics internally for client organizations and in numerous public venues in North America and Europe. He is a member of the Marine Technology Society, the IEEE, and the Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences; is a past board member of the Strategic & Competitive Intelligence Professionals; and is a licensed professional engineer in Colorado and Wyoming. In 2016 he was elected to the Council of Competitive Intelligence Fellows.