Workshop: Scenario Management - From Strategic Foresight to Future Robust Decisions
Due to growing uncertainty and complexity, companies can no longer strive for single trends to explain the future of markets, industries and general side conditions. Instead they have to develop alternative future scenarios – followed by the processes of scenario-interpretation and scenario application. The workshop includes the following steps/phases:
- Introduction into “scenario thinking” and basics of Scenario-Management
- The three steps of scenario development – based on the example of future mobility in urban regions
- Exercise: Future-option thinking and scenario construction
- Scenario-interpretation: Communication and assessment of future scenarios plus consequence-analysis
- From scenarios to strategies (including strategy scenarios)
- Scenarios as a tool for strategic intelligence and early warning processes
- Scenario processes in companies and public institutions
- Learning how to develop future scenarios (methods, processes, examples)
- Testing the core steps of the methodology in an exercise
- Getting an overview about the interpretation and use of scenarios in strategy-, innovation- and early warning-processes (including examples)
- Discussion the possibilities for implementing scenarios in different organizational settings.
Dr. Alexander Fink is founder and member of the Executive Board of ScMI Scenario Management International AG, Paderborn. He studied Industrial Engineering and Management at the University of Paderborn and received his doctor’s degree at the Heinz Nixdorf Institute. He is the author or co-author of several German books, among them “Scenario-Management – From strategic foresight to future-robust decisions” (Campus, 2016) and “Handbook Future Management” (2nd edition Campus, 2011). Additionally he writes for numerous German and international journals. In 1998 he received the “Prize for Outstanding Paper” in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change”. In 2013 he was awarded with the “Prize of German market research” for selected scenario developments. Alexander Fink has a long experience in strategic consulting of industrial and service companies as well as public organizations. His main emphases are scenario planning, visionary strategy development and the integration of early warning and scenarios in the management and planning process. He is a popular speaker on national and international events and conferences dealing with future and strategic matters.